Alberta housing starts on track for another record year

With time ticking down until the end of the year, Alberta is on track for a strong year in home construction that could top the country, but after a dip last quarter, can the province beat the record it set just last year?

“Yes,” said ATB economist,

Siddhartha Bhattacharya promptly. “O

h, 100 per cent. There’s no question about that. And we are definitely going to average over 55,000 units (this year).”

Housing starts, which is defined as the beginning of home construction when the foundational concrete has been poured or an equivalent step marking the start of a home’s construction, are on pace to start an average of 58,072 homes this year, according to a recent ATB report. The yearly averages are calculated based on extrapolating the starts from one month to the entire year.

This recent average comes from October’s statistics, which was a moderate increase from the 54,652 unit starts calculated in September. For comparison, even the “slower” September starts were still well above last year’s record of

46,632 units

.

“I think what happened over the last few years, the market was so active, we had so many people moving to Alberta, so many people buying houses, that inventory levels got really depleted. And so in 2024 and 2025 (housing) starts have been incredibly high as we try to get back to carrying normal amounts of housing inventory,” said president of homebuilder Cantiro Communities, Katrina Rowe.

But even with all the extra home inventory being injected into the market from last year, and a promising outlook for adding homes this year, Edmonton realtor Wendy Theberge said she hasn’t noticed any effect on the activity in the market.

“Anecdotally, the market is just chugging along with loads of new homebuyers buying pre-owned homes,” said Theberge, a realtor with ReMax Elite in Edmonton.

Theberge said many of her clients are looking for older homes in mature neighbourhoods more than they’re looking for ones that are “shiny and new.” “They’re looking at convenience more than the brand new thing,” she said.

While activity remained consistent, the increased supply could slowly be having an effect on home prices. As population growth in the province has eased, Theberge said the prices have begun to stabilize, but multiple offers for houses up for sale is still commonplace.

“There was a blip in May where things calmed down, and then it was back at ‘er. Lots of multiple offers, lots of activity. The activity now is steady, but there’s not a stampede for each house,” said Theberge.

The effect of the easing competition and price stabilization for Theberge has been that for the first time in a while, clients buying a house are local (as opposed to out of province) and have a real chance to crack the market.

For her part, Rowe also noted that a significant portion of the activity in the housing market is happening in the lower price points for people trying to get their first home.

“In Edmonton, we’re definitely seeing the most activity in the low to medium price points. And that’s not just a Cantiro comment, that would be a homebuilder comment across the region. It’s more of the starter product and the more affordable product where we’re seeing the big numbers,” said Rowe.

While home construction has remained strong for the past two years, Rowe and Bhattacharya both expect the building to start to ease.

“A slowdown in starts doesn’t necessarily mean that the market is bad or that things are turning, but we’re finally catching up on starts and inventory in the Edmonton region, in the Calgary region, and getting back to a more balanced market,” said Rowe.

Just as the building had to rise to meet the demand driven by population growth, Bhattacharya said the market can expect a proportional slow down in housing starts as the population growth cools off.

“As population growth slows further, so we are expecting population growth to slow at around 1.8 per cent next year, and towards 1.5 per cent after that. So, we are expecting housing starts also to slow at under 50,000 units next year,” said Bhattacharya.

Despite the soaring housing starts, the extra homes in the inventory have just helped bring back some normalcy, according to Theberge.

“It feels a lot more normal to me. It doesn’t feel like Ontario and B.C. is coming in to scoop up the houses. Maybe it’s happening for the new homes, I don’t know. But honestly, it’s feeling pretty decent out there right now,” said Theberge.

“Steady.”

Related

• ‘Absolutely crazy’: Alberta could topple Ontario in new housing construction
• Alberta housing starts nearing two-decade high